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Date: 2011-04-15 08:52 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2011-04-15 09:14 am (UTC)Both sides are lying -- Part one
Date: 2011-04-15 11:47 am (UTC)The actual mechanics of AV are fairly simple to explain (my effort is here). The advantages of AV versus FPTP are more complex, but to my mind the most important one is that AV satisfies the independence of clones criterion.
To see why independence of clones is important, consider a new, initially small, party that is created to address issues that none of the big parties care about. Under FPTP, any votes this new party gets will predominantly come from other candidates who more favour the new party's policies, meaning that those candidates will be less likely to win, and that by standing, the new party are actually likely to reduce the number of MPs elected who agree with their principles. But under AV, this won't happen since voters could vote for the new party with their first preference, and other candidates with their lower preferences.
Thus under FPTP, new parties will be discouraged, and under AV encouraged. Even if they don't win any seats, if they got lots of first preference votes, it would have an effect on policy; consider if you're an MP who got 25% of first preferences and won becauese of the lower preferences of people who voted Green or UKIP or Pirate for their higher preferences -- obviously any MP is going to bear that in mind if they want to get re-elected.
So, how are they lying?
Supporters of FPTP know that this leads to two big parties with everyone else getting crowded out. There are a few principled people who aren't supporting AV because it isn't PR. Apart from them the main support for FPTP comes from Conservative and (to a lesser extent) Labour MPs, which is not surprising given that FPTP props up the Conservative and Labour parties.
Their inner belief, which is also their argument against PR, is roughly as follows: FPTP is good because it allows us, the {Conservative/Labour} Party, to have untramelled power in Britain on just over a third of the vote, because we're the authentic voices of {middle England / the working class}, even if it does allow the other lot to {impose loony left policies and profligate spending / inflict Thatcherite cuts blighting whole communities} for a decade, because even though the other lot's policies are bad, it's not us who'll personally suffer, merely our core supporters.
Now obviously the no camp can't say that in so many words, because no-one would vote for them.
Unfortunately LJ won't let me post all of this message since there is a limit on message length (a problem that doesn't exist with my MeowCat website) -- so I'll have to post part two separately.
Re: Both sides are lying -- Part two
Date: 2011-04-15 11:48 am (UTC)Many AV supporters are Liberal Democrats and their inner beliefs about AV are roughly as follows: We don't actually support AV, it's a "miserable little compromise" that was the most that we were able to extract out of the Conservatives in the coalition negotiations. If AV wins, it'll help us, since Liberal Democrats will pick up lots of lower preference votes (Tory supporters hate us less than Labour; Labour supporters hate us less than the Tories). This will mean there will be more Lib Dem MPs in future parlaiments, so in future we'll bre able to demand proportional representation (what we really want) in coalition negotiations.
It's equally obvious why the yes camp aren't publicly saying that.
TL;DR: both sides are dishonest, the no campaign more so than the yes campaign. AV is however a better system than FPTP, because it gives the voters more real choice.
Re: Both sides are lying -- Part two
From:Re: Both sides are lying -- Part two
From:Re: Both sides are lying -- Part two
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From:Re: Both sides are lying -- Part two
From:Re: Both sides are lying -- Part two
From:Re: Both sides are lying -- Part one
Date: 2011-04-16 01:39 pm (UTC)And for your information, Scotland had a four-party system under FPTP.
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Date: 2011-04-15 09:32 am (UTC)AV isn't greatly better than what we've got, but I would certainly be willing to vote for it if I didn't feel I was implicitly giving approval to, and therefore encouraging, this kind of campaigning.
It's not sufficiently better that I'm sure I'm now willing to vote for it.
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Date: 2011-04-15 09:45 am (UTC)Personally I feel AV is a first step in the right direction, it'll show that the public has an appetite for change, and even a small step is better than what we've got now. And I'm ignoring both campaigns.
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Date: 2011-04-15 12:22 pm (UTC)I can understand this attitude when it comes to political parties — if Labour (say) runs a vicious, negative campaign, then we can infer that their candidates are vicious, cynical bastards who don't deserve office.
But AV is not an organisation, it is an idea. Whether it passes or fails, the "Yes to AV" campaign will promptly evaporate. Voting for or against AV will not give the Yes campaigners any more or any less power.
So at the very most you're making a vague point to politicians in general... IF they connect your lack of vote to a failure in the campaign.
Plus, by saying no to AV you will be reducing your ability to demonstrate your discontent in future. Want to punish Labour for the aforementioned negative campaigning, but still scared of the Tories getting in? AV is your solution.
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Date: 2011-04-15 08:58 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2011-04-15 09:34 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2011-04-15 09:44 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2011-04-15 09:53 am (UTC)(no subject)
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Date: 2011-04-15 09:45 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2011-04-15 09:55 am (UTC)The problem is that voting systems are seen, rightly or wrongly, as a dry intellectual issue, and most political campaigners seem to believe that even relatively simple statistics would be totally lost on 'the man in the street'. So the tactic is to look for an emotional 'in'.
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Date: 2011-04-15 10:01 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2011-04-15 12:06 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2011-04-15 12:07 pm (UTC)(no subject)
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Date: 2011-04-15 10:00 am (UTC)I wish you all the best, I hope the UK takes a risk for change. It involves working together more, but it also reflects the country more. Just don't have elections every few years like the US, sheesh, never get anything really done, they really are fat cats doing nowt.
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Date: 2011-04-15 10:41 am (UTC)Whilst there are some inaccurate claims being made by Yes To Fairer votes, I don't see why they are the first ones to get coverage from the BBC on this issue, what with all the lies, hypocrisy and scaremongering being pumped out by No2AV... all I've seen from that is the very neutral "No campaign say it will cost £250 million ... Yes campaign say it won't" etc.
I'm also more concerned about the inaccuracy rather than feeling sorry for some MPs - yes, it's a fair point that it's wrong to link FPTP to things like the expenses stuff, but I'm less bothered about it being insulting to MPs. Or at least, it seemed no different to the standard mockery we get in elections, or any other kind of criticism given by others, be it the media, satire, etc.
Don't get me wrong, I think the Yes campaign could be improved - more emphasis on explaining that AV means you get to rate your preferences; they could have shouted a bit louder how it's basically what the parties use for their leadership elections, and mentioned that David Cameron would have lost under FPTP...
In terms of endorsing a campaign - my own view is that even if I didn't vote, if No ends up winning, it will still be an endorsement of their campaign, even if I personally didn't help vote towards it. Which (aside from the fact that I'd prefer AV independent of any campaigns) means I even more want to vote Yes, as even though I don't like everything about the Yes campaign, I still hate No's tactics far more.
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Date: 2011-04-15 11:35 am (UTC)(I also wonder why Labour doesn't produce its own Yes material - or is it a funding issue, because it's only being supported by individual MPs, not as a party?)
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Date: 2011-04-15 12:49 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2011-04-15 12:10 pm (UTC)I disagree -- there's actual evidence that FPTP contributed to the expenses scandal.
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Date: 2011-04-15 11:44 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2011-04-15 11:48 am (UTC)(Sort-of disclaimer: I used to work for the British Humanist Association and was there when the slogan was originally chosen, though the choice was not anything to do with me)
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Date: 2011-04-15 11:55 am (UTC)(no subject)
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